The supermarket and grocery (except convenience) stores industry in North America

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of management efficiency, measured by return on investment (ROI), on the performance of the supermarket and grocery (except convenience) stores industry in North America. This industry plays a critical role in providing daily essentials and has undergone significant transformation through technological innovation, including the integration of online and in-store models (Plunkett Research, Ltd, 2023). Despite increased competition and frequent price changes, major industry players such as Kroger, Safeway, and Publix continue to maintain substantial market share, necessitating an examination of how internal efficiency contributes to business performance.

The research analyzes three independent variables—inflation, net profit margin, and capital expenditure (capex) growth—to evaluate their effect on management efficiency. Previous studies have shown that consumers’ inflation expectations are heavily influenced by the prices of frequently purchased grocery items, underscoring the relevance of inflation in consumer decision-making (D’Acunto et al., 2021). Moreover, fluctuations in operational costs, particularly in transportation, have contributed to sustained increases in food prices (Kuhns, 2015). Technological advances, including machine learning, have also emerged as important tools in enhancing forecasting and investment decision-making in the retail sector (Yakymchuk&Liashenko, 2022).

Using quarterly data from December 2013 to December 2022, the study employs descriptive statistics, regression analysis, and ANOVA. Findings reveal a weak relationship among the variables (R² = 0.129), indicating that only 12.9% of the variance in ROI is explained by inflation, net profit margin, and capex growth. Although the results suggest limited influence of management efficiency on industry performance during the observed period, they provide critical insights into the sector’s operational dynamics and indicate the potential predominance of external economic factors in shaping industry outcomes.